3/4: Lock it up

    It's that time of year, folks. The calendar has turned to March and we are now less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday. While the next 12 days will certainly be a frenzy, the range of possibilities is getting narrower by the day. For some teams that's a bad thing (i.e. - Ole Miss, Iowa, Charlotte, UMass), while for some it's a good thing. How could this be a good thing? Well, for an increasing amount of teams, this means that they've accomplished enough to date that even if they took a collective nap they would still get a bid. Lets take a peak at the obvious and not so obvious teams that have a 100 percent chance of having their name called on St. Patrick's Day, even if they don't win their conference tournament.

The obvious locks:

Arizona
Colorado State
Duke
Florida
Georgetown
Gonzaga
Illinois
Indiana
Kansas
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Miami
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Missouri
New Mexico
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Saint Louis
Syracuse 
UCLA
UNLV
Wisconsin

The not-so-obvious locks:

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Butler:
Record vs RPI top 50: 5-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 7-7
Good wins: Marquette - N, North Carolina - N, Indiana - N, Gonzaga, Temple
Bad losses: None

    You can't look at the above good wins and tell me with a straight face this team will get left out of the tournament. Have they played well since A-10 play began? Not really. Rotnei Clarke isn't as efficient offensively as he was in the first part of the season and sporadic injuries have hurt the Bulldogs. But a win in November counts just as much as a win in March, and the fact that almost all of their big wins came away from home will only help their seeding. Butler will be no worse than a 7 seed on Selection Sunday.

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Cal:
Record vs RPI top 50: 5-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 8-9
Good wins: Oregon, @Arizona, UCLA, @Oregon, Colorado
                      Bad losses: Harvard

    Who would have thought the Golden Bears would get to lock status after starting 13-8 with one top 100 win through January? Since then they've racked up four wins against tournament teams, two of which were on the road in impressive fashion. Their non-conference performance was pretty awful, but their recent play gives them enough notches to overcome this. With one remaining game at home against Stanford and a Pac-12 Quarterfinal, not even two straight losses would keep Cal out.

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Colorado:
Record vs RPI top 50: 4-4
Record vs RPI top 100: 9-8
Good wins: Baylor - N, Colorado State, Cal, @Oregon, Arizona
                        Bad losses: @Utah

   In addition to two very solid out of conference wins and two big wins in conference, the Buffaloes should also get credit for a win at Arizona, because they were completely robbed of that game on January 3rd. At the very least, the selection committee will see that they played the Wildcats to a draw and then beat them convincingly at home. They may not have a great seed in the dance, but there's enough margin of error that they shouldn't worry about getting their name called in twelve days.

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Creighton:
Record vs RPI top 50: 4-3
Record vs RPI top 100: 8-6
Good wins: Wisconsin - N, @Cal, Wichita State
Bad losses: Illinois State, @Drake
   
    There's been a lot of chatter about the Jays stumbling down the stretch, especially after losing four of six in the past month. Yet their out of conference wins are pretty impressive. Since their regular season is complete, they can only lose one more game, at worst, before the NCAA tournament starts. Plus, this team passes the eye test, this squad has an experienced roster that is physically big and has great length, which can't be discounted. There's a lot more to Creighton than Doug McDermott. If they win the MVC tournament, they can get out of the dreaded 8/9 slot. Even if they don't, they'll still be dancing.

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NC State:
Record vs RPI top 50: 3-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 6-7
Good wins: UConn - N, UMass, Duke, North Carolina
Bad losses: None

    See the fourth line of their profile above? Bad losses? None. When you've beaten Connecticut on a neutral floor, taken care of the number one RPI team and supplemented those with a good win against North Carolina, you're in good shape. The Wolfpack could fall a few seed lines if they collapsed in their last three remaining games (Wake, @Florida State, ACC Tournament), but that won't keep them out.

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San Diego State:
Record vs RPI top 50: 4-6
Record vs RPI top 100: 7-8
Good wins: UCLA - N, Colorado State, New Mexico, Boise State
                                Bad losses: None

    The Aztecs have sealed their fate with some big wins and no bad losses. The neutral court win against UCLA is looking better with each passing day, and that's exactly what the selection committee wants to see: teams that can win impressive out of conference games in an NCAA tournament type setting. Credit Steve Fisher for getting the most out of his defense this season. That's one heck of an adjustment, because the offense has been underwhelming to say the least. Don't count San Diego State out in March though, they could be a nightmare match up in the round of 32 or Sweet 16.

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VCU:
Record vs RPI top 50: 3-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 8-6
Good wins: Memphis - N, Belmont, UMass, Butler
Bad losses: None
   
     There's a clear trend here with the teams on this list. Most of them have few bad losses despite marginal resumes, and the Rams are no exception. The outlook was extremely questionable for VCU early in the second half of the Xavier game just a little over a week ago. They had just gotten pummeled by St. Louis on the road and the Musketeers were doing the same early. But Troy Daniels starting making threes and the defense totally changed the complexion of the game. The win changed everything, as they carried that momentum into the Butler game and gave a very good Bulldogs squad their worst loss of the decade. That 60 minutes of basketball changed the whole tune of the regular season. They have an excellent road record and are above .500 against the RPI top 100. Those accomplishments will guarantee them a spot in the tournament.

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