3/4: Three Blind Resume Tests and Lessons Learned on The Bubble

As the tournament picture becomes more clear, the number teams who are probably safe is slowly growing, and we're starting to focus in on the handful of teams who will be sweating out their fate on March 16th. With only 3-4 games remaining for most teams (conference tournaments included), most of the teams on the bubble have just as many blemishes as assets on their resume. So let's take a moment and go through three blind resume tests. If you only had to pick one team from each group, which team would you choose? 

Group 1 (Pick One Team): 

Team A:
Record: 18-14
Record vs top 50: 4-7
Record vs top 100: 6-10
Road/Neutral: 3-11
OOC Key Wins: 33
Other Key Wins: @19, 17, 19
Bad Losses: @135, 194, @124

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Team B:
Record: 25-7
Record vs top 50: 1-1
Record vs top 100: 5-3
Road/Neutral: 15-6
OOC Key Wins: 46 
Other Key wins: None
Bad Losses: @266, 140, @214

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Team C:
Record: 20-12
Record vs top 50: 3-8
Record vs top 100: 8-9
Road/Neutral: 7-9 
Key OOC Wins: 34-N 
Other Key Wins: 61, 33, 14
Bad Losses: @120, 161, @193

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Group 2 (Pick One Team):

Team A:
Record: 28-5
Record vs top 50: 1-3
Record vs top 100: 0-0
Road/Neutral: 12-5
Key OOC Wins: 45
Other Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: 116-N, @162

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Team B:
Record: 21-11
Record vs top 50: 3-4 
Record vs top 100: 6-8
Road/Neutral: 5-9
Key OOC Wins: None
Other Key Wins: 8, 42, @45
Bad Losses: 111-N, @143

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Team C:
Record: 21-11
Record vs top 50: 2-7 
Record vs top 100: 9-9
Road/Neutral: 12-7
Key OOC Wins: None
Other Key Wins: @34, 40
Bad Losses: 148, @144

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Group 3 (Pick One Team):

Team A:
Record: 17-12
Record vs top 50: 3-7
Record vs top 100: 6-10
Road/Neutral: 3-9
Key OOC Wins: @64, 
Other Key Wins: 38, 5, 27
Bad Losses: 130, @126

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Team B:
Record: 20-10
Record vs top 50: 3-5 
Record vs top 100: 7-6
Road/Neutral: 7-9
Key OOC Wins: @41, 24-N
Other Key Wins: 25
Bad Losses: @168, @125, @153, @193

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Team C:
Record: 21-5
Record vs top 50: 1-1
Record vs top 100: 4-3
Road/Neutral: 11-3
Key OOC Wins: 10
Other Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: 170, @177

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Some of you were probably able to figure out what was going on during this exercise. For those who didn't, you've been punked. Groups 1 and 2 were bubble teams from 2012 and 2013, while Group 3 are all bubble teams from this season. What's the moral of the story? Since the field expanded to 68, the selection committee has always made room for one true mid-major who scheduled a tough out of conference slate over teams from multi-bid conferences. In 2012, Iona was selected over Tennessee and Seton Hall. In 2013, Middle Tennessee was selected over Kentucky and UMass. In 2013, MTSU was selected with only one top 100 win against Ole Miss, who wouldn't have even made the tournament had they not won the SEC Tournament. Iona made the tournament in 2012 with just one win against a top 50 RPI team (Nevada) that wasn't even selected! History tends to repeat itself, which leads me to the following point:  If you're on the bubble and from a multiple bid league, you better get on your knees and pray that Green Bay wins the Horizon league title on Tuesday, March 11th. Because if they don't, the last at-large team from the field is going to get bumped in favor of the Phoenix. 

The 2014 teams listed in this exercise were Minnesota (Team A), BYU (Team B), and Green Bay (Team C). With an out of conference win over Virginia, a close loss to Wisconsin, and another tough out of conference game against Harvard, In my opinion, Green Bay has done enough (including three other top 100 wins) to merit inclusion should they not win the Horizon League. I believe the Selection Committee will feel the same way next week. 

Group 1 - 2012 NCAA Bubble Teams (Team B - Iona Received Bid)

Team A (Tennessee - NIT):
Record: 18-14
Record vs top 50: 4-7
Record vs top 100: 6-10
Road/Neutral: 3-11
OOC Key Wins: 33
Other Key Wins: @19, 17, 19
                                                    Bad Losses: @135, 194, @124

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Team B (Iona - NCAA):
Record: 25-7
Record vs top 50: 1-1
Record vs top 100: 5-3
Road/Neutral: 15-6
OOC Key Wins: 46 
Other Key wins: None
Bad Losses: @266, 140, @214

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Team C (Seton Hall - NIT):
Record: 20-12
Record vs top 50: 3-8
Record vs top 100: 8-9
Road/Neutral: 7-9 
Key OOC Wins: 34-N 
Other Key Wins: 61, 33, 14
Bad Losses: @120, 161, @193

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Group 2 - 2013 NCAA Bubble Teams (Team A - MTSU Received Bid)

Team A (Middle Tennessee State - NCAA):
Record: 28-5
Record vs top 50: 1-3
Record vs top 100: 0-0
Road/Neutral: 12-5
Key OOC Wins: 45
Other Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: 116-N, @162

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Team B (Kentucky - NIT):
Record: 21-11
Record vs top 50: 3-4 
Record vs top 100: 6-8
Road/Neutral: 5-9
Key OOC Wins: None
                                                    Other Key Wins: 8, 42, @45
                                                    Bad Losses: 111-N, @143

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Team C (UMass - NIT):
Record: 21-11
Record vs top 50: 2-7 
Record vs top 100: 9-9
Road/Neutral: 12-7
Key OOC Wins: None
Other Key Wins: @34, 40
                                                    Bad Losses: 148, @144

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Group 3 - 2014 NCAA Bubble Teams (TBD)

Team A (Minnesota):
Record: 17-12
Record vs top 50: 3-7
Record vs top 100: 6-10
Road/Neutral: 3-9
Key OOC Wins: at Richmond 
Other Key Wins: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Iowa
Bad Losses: Northwestern, at Purdue

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Team B (BYU):
Record: 20-10
Record vs top 50: 3-5 
Record vs top 100: 7-6
Road/Neutral: 7-9
Key OOC Wins: at Stanford, Texas (neutral)
Other Key Wins: Gonzaga
Bad Losses: at Loyola-Marymount, atPepperdine, at Portland, at Pacific

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Team C (Green Bay):
Record: 21-5
Record vs top 50: 1-1
Record vs top 100: 4-3
Road/Neutral: 11-3
                                                     Key OOC Wins: Virginia
                                                     Other Key Wins: None
                                                     Bad Losses: at Valparaiso, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 

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