The Bracket and S-Curve have been updated! Check back later Tuesday for notes and commentary on this weeks changes. A lot has happened since last Tuesday!

     The first bracket of the season has been posted now that non-conference play has wrapped up and the conference slate is now in full swing. Here are some important notes from the first projection.                                

                                       Marquette's ceiling

• After a poor showing in out of conference play, a lot of bracketology experts thought that Marquette would have to claw their way through the Big East schedule for an at-large bid. Fast forward two weeks and the Golden Eagles are 3-0 in conference, with three top 100 wins (although each game was down to the wire). The S-Curve after team #40 is close to awful this year, so they fit in safely the 7-9 seed range. 9-9 in conference play should seal an at-large bid, and with opportunities at home against Notre Dame and Syracuse down the road, the Eagles have the opportunity to go even higher (a 5 or 6).

                                                  Is there a case for a Gonzaga 1 seed?

• What else are the Zags supposed to do in their out of conference slate? They scheduled extremely tough knowing that the WCC was facing a down year. They drilled Oklahoma and Kansas State away from home, won at Oklahoma State on New Years Eve, beat a decent Baylor team that is in consideration for an at-large, and come three time zones east for a Saturday prime-time match up against a scorching hot Butler squad. The home loss to Illinois is no blemish and is the only thing standing between them and perfection. That's a lot more than Louisville, Syracuse and Indiana accomplished in the non-conference schedule. Heck, Syracuse traditionally refuses to schedule a true road game before Big East play. Despite the fact that Gonzaga has nine upcoming conference games against RPI 150+ teams, it's unfair to punish a team for a conference slate they didn't choose. They're the model of what the selection committee preaches for scheduling. If they somehow win out or lose just one more game through March, they should receive serious consideration for the top line. 

                                       Illinois needs to correct itself before it wrecks itself

• A little over a month ago I heaped praise on the Illini for results that John Groce was getting out of his team, and how this year was certainly different from the last. But Illinois has started Big Ten play a 1-3, with a terrible loss to Purdue and followed up with two behind the woodshed beatings from Wisconsin and Minnesota. This follows a disturbing pattern from 2011-2012, when they started hot and finished miserably. The lapses on the defensive end are concerning to say the least, and some of the turnovers they commit are just silly. But it's not too late. There are 14 games left, and Illinois needs to win eight of them and they're a lock for the tournament (seven would probably make them safe as well). It doesn't even really matter which teams they beat from here until March 17th because they've already racked up three signature wins. Like Marquette, they just need to get to .500 in conference play.                                                            

                                                 Creighton is more than a one man show

• Doug McDermott. Doug McDermott. Doug McDermott. There, I said his name three times to give the All-American his due credit. Now let's talk about how good rest of the team is. Is anyone noticing that Grant Gibbs has a 5:1 assist to turnover ratio? Or that Ethan Wragge is lights out from deep? (He needs to shoot it more and get more minutes, by the way. Same goes for Austin Chatman). After giving up 70 plus points in three of their first four, the Jays have given up 70 just once since their confounding loss to Boise on November 28th. Much of that is due to Greg Echenique becoming a defensive force down low while also scoring more consistently. While the Jays didn't get any really impressive wins out of conference, they had several solid wins (Arizona State, Wisconsin, Cal, Saint Joe's). That's enough to overcome their loss to a good Boise State and will get them a top 5 seed if they continue to play at a high level. And if Wragge and Chatman get hot in March, watch out. This team can make the Final Four.

    I've been asked a few times to write a piece on VCU, since that's my alma-mater and the team a decent number of my readership follows. Because this blog is about the national basketball scene and bracketology picture, I try not to focus on the Rams. Any evaluation I give about their potential and style of play would end of up with at least some level of favorable bias. With that being said, I'm going to take an objective stab at potential end of season outcome based on some statistical modeling from other excellent college basketball websites.

    Please remember, A) more than anything else, it's fun to look at, and B) with about half the season under our belt, the statistical models have a decent sample size to work with and have some (but not great) level of accuracy.

    First, check out this piece in which John Templon of Big Apple Buckets runs 10,000 simulations of the A-10 season:

    Now consider that in these simulations, the Rams' average record in conference play was 14-2. This would put them at 26-5 to close the regular season. Next, take a gander at RPIforecast.com. This simulation, which combines current results with the highly respected Sagarin predictor model, also figures the most likely scenario is for the Rams to finish 26-5 and 14-2 in conference play. Some other nuggets from RPIForecast:

Record vs RPI top 50: 4-3
Record vs RPI top 100: 12-4

    To try and gauge what seed that might land Shaka's club, the best analog from last year I could find was (surprise) Wichita State. They played in a weaker conference than VCU will be in this year, but they finished 26-6, 14-2 in conference, 2-3 vs RPI top 50 and 8-3 vs RPI top 100, not including post-season play. While they had a signature OOC win against UNLV (VCU doesn't really have that), their OOC losses were to teams not as strong as Duke, Mizzou, and Wichita State of this year.

    The Shockers ended up as a 5 seed, but I feel they were slightly under-seeded. A 4 or even a 3 may have been appropriate. It's not unreasonable to think VCU could lose just two more games all season, and it's also not unreasonable to say they could lose five in conference. Depending on how the conference tournament plays out, here's where I think the Rams could end up in the dance:

26-5: 3-4 seed
24-7: 5-6 seed
23-8: 7-8 seed

    My prediction: I don't think these forecasts take into account that VCU will have a huge target on their back this season, especially on the road. They'll also come out cold a couple of nights, and will cost them. The Rams will finish 12-4 in conference and 24-7 overall, with a couple of losses to very good teams (SLU/Temple) and a couple of games they shouldn't lose. That would put them at a 5 or 6 seed, depending on how things play out in Brooklyn.

* Photo credit to VCURamnation.com