Quick early update. I've decided on the last four teams in this morning. I feel pretty comfortable that La Salle and Tennessee are safe. La Salle's three wins against the field are all solid, and one was away from home. They had a decent number of top 100 wins, minimal bad losses, and accomplished something in the out of conference slate against Villanova. Tennessee stuggled away from home, but there are too many quality wins to leave them out. I went with Kentucky as my second to last team in based on the number of quality wins, a decent neutral court win against Maryland, and few bad losses. I gave the last spot to UMass over St. Mary's, Middle Tennessee State and Ole Miss because they racked up nine top 100 wins, had two wins against the field, were 12-7 away from home and had several top 100 out of conference wins. I think Ole Miss is out if they lose today. They had three awful losses, a HORRIBLE out of conference showing, and their best wins are against teams barely in the field. If they win today, they'll bump UMass out of the field. I'll give it one more look in the afternoon and release the final bracket around 5pm Eastern.

Last night was insane. A lot of the teams on the bubble shifted around after some shocking wins and confounding losses. I feel pretty strongly that 34 of the 37 at-large bids are locked up, with three left spots up for grabs. Kentucky, La Salle, St. Mary's, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State, Ole Miss, Maryland, UMass and Baylor are the teams vying for those last spots as long as there are no bid thieves. Lets quickly run through them all.

1. Maryland had a huge win against Duke last night, but they are still just 4-9 vs the top 100 and their best out of conference win was against Stony Brook. The are certainly back in the discussion, but I'd say they need to win one more against UNC today before moving into the field.
   
2. Tennessee has done nothing away from home, and their case wasn't helped last night by their loss against Alabama. Still, they at least beat Wichita State in the out of conference slate and have three other wins against the field. That's enough to keep one of the last remaining spots. For now.
3. Kentucky is 4-4 since Nerlens Noel went out with a knee injury. They've beaten Florida and Missouri during that time, but have also lost to Vandy and Georgia. It's tough to say how the selection committee will view this team, but they have multiple quality wins and beat Maryland out of conference. That's more than other teams can say.
4. St. Mary's has racked up a bunch of top 100 wins, but their only win against a team in the NCAA field this season was against Creighton. Their above .500 record against RPI top 100 is enough for the moment, but their spot seems to be the most tenuous of the final teams in.
5. Ole Miss has a gaudy record and several quality wins, but they accomplished absolutely nothing in the out of conference slate. That's a sure fire way to get the cold shoulder from the selection committee. To compensate for that, they'll need to get to the SEC Final at the very least. 
6. UMass got an extremely impressive win against Temple last night in the A10 quarterfinals. They also beat LaSalle earlier in the year and while they don't have a lot of great out of conference wins, they beat several top 100 teams before A10 play started. I still think they need one more to get over the top, however. A win against VCU today would probably get them in the field.
7. Middle Tennessee State was dealt a tough set of cards. They scheduled tough and got a sold win against Ole Miss, but they just don't have a lot to show for it. The Sun Belt is a truly awful conference, so they shouldn't be penalized for that. What's interesting is that their win against Vanderbilt is looking better and better. Even though the Commodores could technically steal a bid from the at-large pool, the Blue Raiders may actually benefit if Vanderbilt wins the SEC tournament. 
8. Baylor will probably get left out. They have some nice wins, but like Maryland they have a very poor record against the RPI top 100 (5-11). If the Terps can't quite get in the field after two Duke wins, Baylor's wins against Kentucky and Kansas won't quite do it, either. Perhaps if they had beaten Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament this would be a different story, but that didn't happen.
9. La Salle may only have three quality wins (Butler, @VCU, Villanova), but they were solid enough against the top 100 and have one good win in the out of conference slate, something many of the bubble teams don't have. They were also 8-7 away from home, which is another notch to their already decent resume. I'd be surprised to see the Explorers get left out.

Sticking with Thursday afternoon's theme, we'll quickly roll through the results from last night and how they impacted the bracket. There were several seeding changes, but we'll stick to the top story lines. Things are moving really fast, so try to keep up!


  Cal will still make the tournament

• Jarred DuBois broke the spirit of the Golden Bears last night when he hit a late three to tie the game for the Utes of Utah. After the game went to overtime, Cal had nothing left in the tank and gave up 20 (!) points in the extra session. Utah has done this from time to time this season, having already upset Boise State, Colorado, and Oregon. This is still a bad loss, though. While it will certainly drop the Golden Bears a seed line or two, they will be in the tournament. Their good wins are far too impressive to even think about leaving them out. They can do damage in the tournament, but they're going to have to get point production from players not named than Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs. 
  

                                                       Iowa could snag the last at-large

• Don't look now, but the Hawkeyes resume is starting to look legit. They own wins over Iowa State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois and have just two bad losses to Purdue and Northwestern. The problem for Iowa is that they have done nothing away from home this season. That can change on Friday, however. If they can pull off an upset on a neutral court against Michigan State, the selection committee will have to seriously consider this team for an at-large. In order to beat Sparty, they need to get to the free throw line, which is one of their biggest strengths. This is especially true for Roy Devyn Marble. Also, they need to limit their threes. When they take a lot against good teams, they tend to struggle mightily. We'll learn a lot about this team by the end of the day.
  

                                  Hoyas and Cardinals in a dead heat for the final 1 seed

• Both clubs are rolling right now and were able to win impressively in the quarterfinals on Thursday. Georgetown has flourished since they started running their offense through Otto Porter (who totally deserves the national player of the year award, by the way). Louisville has improved dramatically on the offensive end of late, and as a result they've won eight in a row. The real story has been their defense, however. They Cardinals haven't given up more than 61 points since their five overtime loss to Notre Dame. They've been forcing turnovers at an incredible rate lately, and their half-court defense is collectively approaching lock down status. If both teams get to the finals, the winner on Saturday night will almost certainly get the last remaining one seed. 
  

      We're really rolling now. The Big East Tournament is halfway complete and the Pac 12, Mountain West, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC are well underway. Lets go through some rather quick bullet points to summarize the Thursday matinees and how they effect the teams that are in or can still make the tournament. A similar update will come in a few hours after most of the night games are done. 


                                               Cuse stops their slide, but is depth an issue?

• James Southerland was clutch this afternoon. He led the Orange over Pittsburgh, but the production was well distributed among the starting five. This was important, because the selection committee had to wonder if Syracuse was running out of gas late in the season. Getting a win against a very good Pitt squad on a neutral court will stop their slide in terms of seeding. Remember, they were in the running for a 2 seed just a few weeks ago, and had fallen to a 6. Their win today flips their seeding with the Panthers, moving the Orange to a 5 while Pitt falls to a 6. One has to question the depth of the Syracuse, however. Nearly all minutes and production came from six players, and that's a huge red flag when you might have to play five games in eight days. Keep an eye on their level of play against Georgetown on Friday. If they start to get tired early, it's a sign they could be in trouble next weekend.
  

                                                                  Cyclones are a lock

• Back in February when Kansas was slumping and Elijah Johnson was hurting the Jayhawks, I suggested he stop taking so many shots and help the team in other ways. Johnson should take notes from Iowa State's Korie Lucious. Lucious was ice cold from the field, but he had a remarkable nine assists while committing just two turnovers. Make no mistake about it, Melvin Ejim wouldn't have scored so much without him, especially as the Cyclones closed in on Oklahoma, who led most of the game until late. Thanks to their comeback today, Iowa State is now a lock for the tournament and will likely stay out of the First Four in Dayton. Oklahoma now moves to the bubble after a confounding loss to TCU last week and their collapse today. More to come on the Sooners later this weekend, but their situation has become very tenuous very quickly. 
  

                                                                The Vols hold serve

• It's no wonder Tennessee is a bubble team. They're talented and full of energy, but they play extremely hard headed at times. With the exception of Trae Golden, they took and missed way too many threes this afternoon, but played wonderfully on defense and were able to come out with a critical win. Why is the win over the Bulldogs so big? Make no mistake about it, a bubble team is going to have an awful loss this weekend. Since the Vols are fighting for the last bid, winning a game they're supposed to win is almost like moving up. They can really improve their standing with a win against Alabama on Friday afternoon. Cuonzo Martin's group has yet to do anything away from Knoxville, and a top 100 win on a neutral court would make an impression on the selection committee. 
  

     Let's assume for a moment that we have 36 of the 37 at-large teams chosen for the tournament field and there is just one team left to select. Below there will be four resumes, but no team names attached to them. You decide which of these four teams should get a bid, and at the bottom click the "read more" link to reveal the teams. 

                                        Team A
Record vs RPI top 50: 0-2
Record vs RPI top 100: 2-3
Wins vs teams under consideration (by S-Curve ranking): vs #48
Record vs teams under consideration (by S-Curve ranking): 1-2
Losses to RPI 100+: 2
Non-Con Strength of Schedule: 12
Road/Neutral Record: 13-5

                                       Team B
Record vs RPI top 50: 1-3
Record vs RPI top 100: 6-4
Wins vs teams under consideration (by S-Curve ranking): vs #34
Record vs teams under consideration (by S-Curve ranking): 1-3
Losses to RPI 100+: 2
Non-Con Strength of Schedule: 122
Road/Neutral Record: 11-5

                                     Team C
Record vs RPI top 50: 4-2
Record vs RPI top 100: 8-3
Wins vs teams under consideration (by S-Curve ranking): vs #1, vs #36, vs #42, @ #14, vs 50
Record vs teams under consideration (by S-Curve ranking): 5-3
Losses to RPI 100+: 7
Non-Con Strength of Schedule: 303
                                   Road/Neutral Record: 3-9

                                 Team D
Record vs RPI top 50: 2-10
Record vs RPI top 100: 5-10
Wins vs teams under consideration (by S-Curve ranking): vs #5, vs #15, @ #44
Record vs teams under consideration (by S-Curve ranking): 3-10
Losses to RPI 100+: 3
Non-Con Strength of Schedule: 43
                                   Road/Neutral Record: 6-8

     As Selection Sunday draws closer, we're starting to get a better idea of which the top teams will "host" the Second and Third rounds of the NCAA Tournament (although, keep in mind that teams can not play on their home court). For those who are unfamiliar with the process, the Selection Committee will give priority for the top four seeds in each region (or top sixteen teams) to play closest to their campus. For example, it's pretty well known at this point that Duke and Georgetown will likely get placed at the sub-regional site closest to their campus and/or largest alumni base, which is Philadelphia. So if you're a team like, say, Syracuse, hoping to get a top 4 seed and a quick trip to the City of Brotherly Love, you can pretty much forget about it. Let's list the sites that are locked up as of Monday, March 11th:

    After Sunday's stumble against FIU in the Sun Belt semifinals, questions immediately arose as to whether Middle Tennessee State has a legitimate shot at an at-large bid to the tournament. The best comparison is last year's Iona team, who made the field in spite of not having any wins against the at-large field in 2012. But the Gaels did have five wins against the RPI top 100, while the Blue Raiders have just two. They did have a pretty solid win against Ole Miss in December, but that's pretty much all they've done this year aside from having a stellar 12-4 record away from home. At the end of the day, however, it doesn't seem like it will be enough. There are just one or two at-large bids up for grabs at this point, and I would think the selection committee would be more inclined to award the last bid or two to teams like Tennessee or Baylor who have very impressive wins. It's a shame, because MTSU could have done some major damage in the tournament.

     This update will be brief because it's 1AM in the East. But I have a few bullet points on the key aspects of Saturdays surprises.

• New Mexico was a safe bet for a 2 seed and even had a legit argument for a 1 seed. The Lobos lost in heartbreaking fashion to Air Force today, which moves them down to a 3. Lobo fans shouldn't get too worried, however. If they take care of business in the MWC Tournament they should be back in contention for a 2.
• Baylor, you're killing us. Everyone had written you off as the bubble team that couldn't come up big when it matters. By the start of this weekend, you weren't even in my last six teams OUT, much less in. But then the Bears smacked Kansas Saturday and they are right back in the thick of things. I currently have them as my first team out. All they need to do is win one or two more marquee games in the Big 12 tournament and it would be very difficult to exclude them.
• Congrats to the Boise State Broncos. They have locked up an at-large for the first time in the school's history with their impressive win against San Diego State. Boise fans should not be sweating on Selection Sunday. And trust me, you don't want to see Derrick Marks in the first round. They can do serious damage. Think Sweet 16.

     *From this point until Selection Sunday, results will be pouring in day and night, on weekends and weekdays alike. That means bracket updates and blog posts will be coming at least twice daily for the next week. Be sure to check the site frequently, and please share the updates on twitter (@RJTutton)! It's going to an awesome March.
     
                                      Takin care of bidness
     Congrats to the Eagles of Florida Gulf Coast for clinching the first automatic bid of 2013 and the first in the school's short history. Despite playing on the road at Mercer for the Atlantic Sun tournament final, they controlled the game for the final half. They have several transfers from BCS schools and have plenty of talent. It showed today. This was briefly discussed on Twitter earlier, but the Eagles do NOT need to be concerned about getting sent to Dayton for the First Four next Tuesday/Wednesday. Their early season win over Miami should get them to the 15 line at the very lowest. At the moment they are projected as a 14 seed. 

                                                 Billikens win A-10 Regular Season Crown
      What an emotional season for St. Louis. Jim Crews gave his squad more autonomy when he took over for the late Rick Majerus, and it showed after Kwamain Mitchell returned from injury. The Billikens have been truly dominant since the start of December, going 21-3 after a 3-3 start. One could make an argument that VCU has been great in A10 play this year, but SLU has been better. They are now 5-2 vs the RPI top 50 and 12-4 against the top 100 (!), and the selection committee will certainly reward them for their accomplishments. Side note: Dwayne Evans should be a lock for first team All A-10 and should get serious consideration for conference player of the year. The 6-5 forward has scored in double figures in 13 consecutive games and has pulled in five double-doubles in his past ten games. He had 16 points and 17 rebounds in the season finale today against La Salle. Those are ridiculous numbers. 

                                                         Big Blue Nation can exhale
     The 'Cats front court must have channeled their inner Nerlens today, because they drove the Gators crazy in the paint. Willie Cauley-Stein blocked four shots and combined with Alex Poythress for 20 rebounds. Kentucky's guards were efficient enough on the offensive end and forced Florida to take a high number of low percentage shots. Any team that can hold the Gators to 57 points deserves a gold star. What does this mean for the Wildcats NCAA hopes? Barring a large number of bid thieves, Kentucky is in after their win today. Despite only being 2-6 vs the RPI top 50, they now add a Florida to a list of good wins over Maryland-N, Tennessee, and Missouri with only one bad loss to Georgia. 

*Photo credit to the Fort Myers News-Press. 

    It's that time of year, folks. The calendar has turned to March and we are now less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday. While the next 12 days will certainly be a frenzy, the range of possibilities is getting narrower by the day. For some teams that's a bad thing (i.e. - Ole Miss, Iowa, Charlotte, UMass), while for some it's a good thing. How could this be a good thing? Well, for an increasing amount of teams, this means that they've accomplished enough to date that even if they took a collective nap they would still get a bid. Lets take a peak at the obvious and not so obvious teams that have a 100 percent chance of having their name called on St. Patrick's Day, even if they don't win their conference tournament.

The obvious locks:

Arizona
Colorado State
Duke
Florida
Georgetown
Gonzaga
Illinois
Indiana
Kansas
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Miami
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Missouri
New Mexico
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Saint Louis
Syracuse 
UCLA
UNLV
Wisconsin

The not-so-obvious locks:

Butler:
Record vs RPI top 50: 5-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 7-7
Good wins: Marquette - N, North Carolina - N, Indiana - N, Gonzaga, Temple
Bad losses: None

    You can't look at the above good wins and tell me with a straight face this team will get left out of the tournament. Have they played well since A-10 play began? Not really. Rotnei Clarke isn't as efficient offensively as he was in the first part of the season and sporadic injuries have hurt the Bulldogs. But a win in November counts just as much as a win in March, and the fact that almost all of their big wins came away from home will only help their seeding. Butler will be no worse than a 7 seed on Selection Sunday.

Cal:
Record vs RPI top 50: 5-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 8-9
Good wins: Oregon, @Arizona, UCLA, @Oregon, Colorado
                      Bad losses: Harvard

    Who would have thought the Golden Bears would get to lock status after starting 13-8 with one top 100 win through January? Since then they've racked up four wins against tournament teams, two of which were on the road in impressive fashion. Their non-conference performance was pretty awful, but their recent play gives them enough notches to overcome this. With one remaining game at home against Stanford and a Pac-12 Quarterfinal, not even two straight losses would keep Cal out.

Colorado:
Record vs RPI top 50: 4-4
Record vs RPI top 100: 9-8
Good wins: Baylor - N, Colorado State, Cal, @Oregon, Arizona
                        Bad losses: @Utah

   In addition to two very solid out of conference wins and two big wins in conference, the Buffaloes should also get credit for a win at Arizona, because they were completely robbed of that game on January 3rd. At the very least, the selection committee will see that they played the Wildcats to a draw and then beat them convincingly at home. They may not have a great seed in the dance, but there's enough margin of error that they shouldn't worry about getting their name called in twelve days.

Creighton:
Record vs RPI top 50: 4-3
Record vs RPI top 100: 8-6
Good wins: Wisconsin - N, @Cal, Wichita State
Bad losses: Illinois State, @Drake
   
    There's been a lot of chatter about the Jays stumbling down the stretch, especially after losing four of six in the past month. Yet their out of conference wins are pretty impressive. Since their regular season is complete, they can only lose one more game, at worst, before the NCAA tournament starts. Plus, this team passes the eye test, this squad has an experienced roster that is physically big and has great length, which can't be discounted. There's a lot more to Creighton than Doug McDermott. If they win the MVC tournament, they can get out of the dreaded 8/9 slot. Even if they don't, they'll still be dancing.

NC State:
Record vs RPI top 50: 3-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 6-7
Good wins: UConn - N, UMass, Duke, North Carolina
Bad losses: None

    See the fourth line of their profile above? Bad losses? None. When you've beaten Connecticut on a neutral floor, taken care of the number one RPI team and supplemented those with a good win against North Carolina, you're in good shape. The Wolfpack could fall a few seed lines if they collapsed in their last three remaining games (Wake, @Florida State, ACC Tournament), but that won't keep them out.

San Diego State:
Record vs RPI top 50: 4-6
Record vs RPI top 100: 7-8
Good wins: UCLA - N, Colorado State, New Mexico, Boise State
                                Bad losses: None

    The Aztecs have sealed their fate with some big wins and no bad losses. The neutral court win against UCLA is looking better with each passing day, and that's exactly what the selection committee wants to see: teams that can win impressive out of conference games in an NCAA tournament type setting. Credit Steve Fisher for getting the most out of his defense this season. That's one heck of an adjustment, because the offense has been underwhelming to say the least. Don't count San Diego State out in March though, they could be a nightmare match up in the round of 32 or Sweet 16.

VCU:
Record vs RPI top 50: 3-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 8-6
Good wins: Memphis - N, Belmont, UMass, Butler
Bad losses: None
   
     There's a clear trend here with the teams on this list. Most of them have few bad losses despite marginal resumes, and the Rams are no exception. The outlook was extremely questionable for VCU early in the second half of the Xavier game just a little over a week ago. They had just gotten pummeled by St. Louis on the road and the Musketeers were doing the same early. But Troy Daniels starting making threes and the defense totally changed the complexion of the game. The win changed everything, as they carried that momentum into the Butler game and gave a very good Bulldogs squad their worst loss of the decade. That 60 minutes of basketball changed the whole tune of the regular season. They have an excellent road record and are above .500 against the RPI top 100. Those accomplishments will guarantee them a spot in the tournament.