In what seemed like an innocuous press release, last week the NCAA announced that Atlantic 10 commissioner Bernadette McGlade and Bradley Athletic Director Chris Reynolds would begin five-year terms on the Division 1 men's basketball selection committee starting with the 2018-2019 season. At the time, it didn't raise many eyebrows. Each member of the ten-person selection committee serves a five-year appointment, and this year was the final season for Southland Conference Commissioner Tom Burnett and Creighton Athletic Director Bruce Rasmussen. McGlade and Reynolds will replace them starting next season.

The buried lede in this release is huge news if you think mid-majors deserve more representation in the NCAA Tournament. What this means is that the majority of the ten-person committee will be represented by mid-major or low-major conferences for the first time since 2013. Why? Because of the two departing members, one is from the power conferences (Rasmussen - Creighton) and one is from a low-major (Reynolds - Southland).  McGlade and Reynolds, the two incoming members, are both from mid- or low-major conferences. This shifts the power to 6-4 in favor of the smaller conferences. Listed below are the members of the 2019 selection committee:

Power conference members:
Bernard Muir (Chair) - Stanford
Mich Barnhart - Kentucky
Kevin White - Duke
Jim Phillips - Northwestern

Mid or low-major conference members:
Mountain West Commissioner (yet to be named)
Jim Schaus - Ohio University
Tom Holmue - BYU
Janet Cone - UNC-Asheville
Bernadette McGlade - Atlantic 10
Chris Reynolds - Bradley

So what happened in 2014 to shift the balance of power to the power conferences? Bruce Rasmussen, the AD at Creighton, began his five-year term on the selection committee. At the time of his appointment, Creighton was still a member of the Missouri Valley conference - a mid-major. This kept majority representation with the mid-low major schools (four from power conferences, six from non-power conferences). But in Spring 2013, Creighton joined the Big East, changing the makeup of the committee members to five and five. The equal representation from the elite conferences made a MASSIVE difference in selection and seeding from 2013 to 2014. Take a look at the last four at-large teams selected in those two years:

2013
Boise State (Mountain West)
La Salle (Atlantic 10)
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA)
Saint Mary's (West Coast Conference)

2014
Xavier (Big East)
NC State (ACC)
Tennessee (SEC)
Iowa (Big Ten)

Pretty drastic, right? In the year where the power on the committee shifted toward the power schools, the last four at-large bids went from four mid-majors to four power schools. This doesn't even begin to scratch the surface; mid-majors like St. Bonaventure in 2016 and Middle Tennessee in 2018 were left out even though they had strong resumes. Meanwhile, Syracuse made the field in both 2016 and 2018 despite having a losing record in top 50 and 100 games.

While committee members are supposed to be objective, it was clear that the five members from power conferences were voting as a bloc over the last five seasons. Some would argue that the power conferences should comprise at least half of the selection committee because they have most of the talent and wins. But remember, the Power 6 schools represent just 77 of 351 member institutions, about 22 percent of the schools in Division I. It only makes sense that the power conferences be limited to 40 percent of the body that determines all of the at-large bids, seeding, and destinations for each institution. 

It's 10 minutes to 6pm and the Selection Show is about to start. Unfortunately, there's no time to do a bracket before the clock strikes zero. That being said, here's your 2018 projections and seed list. At the bottom are the first ten teams out. Enjoy!
1
Virginia (ACC)
Villanova
Kansas
Xavier
2
North Carolina
Duke 
Purdue
Cincinnati 
3
Michigan
Tennessee 
Michigan St.
West Virginia
4
Texas Tech
Auburn
Wichita State
Arizona
5
Gonzaga
Kentucky
Houston
Ohio State
6
Clemson
Miami
Florida
Texas A&M
7
Arkansas
Missouri
Nevada
Virginia Tech
8
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
TCU
Providence
9
Florida St.
NC State
Alabama
Texas
10
St. Bonaventure
Creighton
Butler
Arizona State
11
USC/UCLA
St. Mary's/Oklahoma
Loyola-Chicago
San Diego St.
12
Davidson
New Mexico St.
South Dakota St.
Murray St.
13
Marshall
Buffalo 
Charleston
UNC-Greensboro
14
Bucknell
Montana
Wright State
SF Austin
15
Penn
Lipscomb
Georgia State
UMBC
16
Cal St. Fullerton
NC Central
LIU Brooklyn/Radford
Texas Southern/Iona

​First Out:
Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma St.
Kansas State
Syracuse
LSU
Louisville
Washington
Utah
Baylor
Penn St.

The clock has struck midnight! Welcome to March, everyone! Over the next 20 days or so the action will be almost non-stop, and Bracket Forecast has you covered. To celebrate March Madness, we've got a fresh bracket up for your viewing pleasure. We'll have new posts coming just about every day until Selection Sunday, March 11th. In the mean time, Let's quickly go over a few headlines about the bracket as it stands today.

•  Virginia all but has the #1 overall seed locked up. If they win either of their final two regular season games this week, it's a done deal. They'll be playing in the South Region on Thursday and Saturday, March 15th and 17th. If they win in the first two rounds, they'll then advance to Atlanta for the regional semis.

• Speaking of the ACC, UNC fans need not worry about the loss to Miami. Their ten Tier 1 wins, a very high SOS, and a lack of bad losses means they're still firmly on the two line with a chance to get a 1 seed, should they win a couple of more quality games. Barring a collapse, they're also headed to Charlotte. Which region they play in is still far from decided.

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• Does Middle Tennessee deserve an at-large bid if they don't win the C-USA tournament? Their lack of wins against the field says no, but their non-conference SOS and record in Tier 1 and 2 game says yes. Their only loss outside Tier 1 and 2 is against Belmont, who is 23-8 and has an RPI of 76. That's hardly a bad loss. They lost neutral court games against Auburn, USC, and Miami by an average of five points. Pay close attention to the Blue Raiders. If they need an at-large bid to make the tournament, that could steal a spot away from someone on the edge of the bubble.

• The Pac 12 is a mess. Arizona and Arizona State are firmly in the field, but otherwise there are no guarantees. As of today, Washington and UCLA are in my last four teams in and Utah, USC, Oregon, and Utah are sitting just outside the field. As we get closer to Selection Sunday, keep a close eye on which teams on the bubble weed themselves out with bad losses or play themselves in with quality wins. The conference tournament in Las Vegas next week will have a lot on the line. 

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• The more time that passes without St. Bonaventure suffering a bad loss, the more confident I am that they'll make the field. After squeaking out a thrilling 3OT victory against Davidson Tuesday, they close out the regular season at St. Louis. If they can win that game and advance to the semis of the A10 tournament next week, they'll get pretty close to lock status.