Your team has completely tanked in February. They're at or near the basement of your respective power conference. With a record of 4-9 or 5-8, all hopes are gone for a tournament bid, right? Not so fast. Though rare, there are a few interesting case studies each year of teams that tanked early in the conference schedule, yet had such high powered out of conference resumes that they remained in the mix for an at large. UConn in 2012 is a classic example. At the end of February, the Huskies looked dead in the water. They were 7-10 in Big East play with a painful loss to Providence (RPI 156). Most experts removed them from consideration for an at-large. But they weren't finished. They rallied to get three more wins before bowing out in the Big East Tournament Semifinals. Because of signature out of conference wins against Florida State and Harvard (RPI 13 and 36, respectively) and two quality wins in Big East play, they had done enough to garner a 9 seed in the 2012 NCAA field.
Take heart Baylor and Oklahoma State fans. You aren't cooked just yet. Take a look at the quality wins each team has amassed thus far:
Baylor (5-8 Big 12):
Colorado (RPI 26) - Neutral
Dayton (RPI 60) - Neutral
Kentucky (13) - Neutral
Oklahoma State twice (50) - Home and Away
Kansas State (35)
Oklahoma State (4-9 Big 12):
Memphis (34)
Colorado (26) - Neutral
West Virginia twice (71) - Home and Away
Texas (21)
Conference slip ups and general tailspins aside, these are solid overall resumes. Baylor just needs to finish the regular season at 3-2, and they should be safe for an at-large. Oklahoma State has more work to do, but as Marcus Smart returns this weekend, getting an at-large is still entirely possible. A 4-1 finish would get them to the 8-10 conference threshold. While 8-10 and several quality wins can get you in the field of 68, I have yet to find an example of a 7-11 or 6-10 conference team getting an at-large bid (if you find an example, please let me know). That would mean beating Texas Tech at home and TCU on the road, plus beating two out of three against Kansas, Kansas State, and at Iowa State. Is it a tall order? Sure. Can it be done? With the Marcus Smart and LeMarcus Nash leading the charge, anything is possible. Don't count either team out just yet.
Take heart Baylor and Oklahoma State fans. You aren't cooked just yet. Take a look at the quality wins each team has amassed thus far:
Baylor (5-8 Big 12):
Colorado (RPI 26) - Neutral
Dayton (RPI 60) - Neutral
Kentucky (13) - Neutral
Oklahoma State twice (50) - Home and Away
Kansas State (35)
Oklahoma State (4-9 Big 12):
Memphis (34)
Colorado (26) - Neutral
West Virginia twice (71) - Home and Away
Texas (21)
Conference slip ups and general tailspins aside, these are solid overall resumes. Baylor just needs to finish the regular season at 3-2, and they should be safe for an at-large. Oklahoma State has more work to do, but as Marcus Smart returns this weekend, getting an at-large is still entirely possible. A 4-1 finish would get them to the 8-10 conference threshold. While 8-10 and several quality wins can get you in the field of 68, I have yet to find an example of a 7-11 or 6-10 conference team getting an at-large bid (if you find an example, please let me know). That would mean beating Texas Tech at home and TCU on the road, plus beating two out of three against Kansas, Kansas State, and at Iowa State. Is it a tall order? Sure. Can it be done? With the Marcus Smart and LeMarcus Nash leading the charge, anything is possible. Don't count either team out just yet.
* Photo credit to www,fullscales.com
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