Poor Non-League Schedules = NIT? Part 2

In our first installment of this topic, we discussed how Kansas State's entry into the NCAA field last season opened the flood gates for other schools to schedule poor non-conference slates. 

If you haven't read read the prologue, you can check it out here.

We discussed five schools who have taken this route, and tried to pinpoint exactly how much this will hurt their case for an at-large bid in 2018. Those schools were Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Mississippi State, and Utah. Tonight we'll look at five more programs who are dancing with fire this year (pun intended).
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Houston

Non-conference SOS: 262
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 2
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 7
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 2

Kalvin Sampson is finally delivering in Houston after bringing huge expectations with him. The Cougars are 19-5 so far this year, with excellent wins in and outside of league play. Their record in Tier 1 RPI games is 3-2, which resembles a team fighting for a single digit seed instead of being on the bubble. So what's the issue? Sampson and Co. played seven games against teams rated 200 or lower in the RPI, which is easily enough to tank any team's non-conference SOS.  To pile on even more, they lost a first round Paradise Jam tilt with Drexel (RPI 219).

But fear not, Coug fans. Houston did challenge themselves to a degree in non-league play and got results. They defeated Providence on a "neutral court" in Connecticut and drilled Arkansas at home. Both are projected to easily make the field this year. They also played a tough road game at LSU and barely lost. Combined with their win against Wichita State, they should be in the field this year. Of course, this assumes they won't have an epic late-season collapse.

Odds of making the field: 70%

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Boston College

Non-conference SOS: 289
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2 (or 3 if you include No. 53 Nebraska)
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 6
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 4

After what seems like a decade of irrelevance, things are looking up in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles are 16-10 so far this season, with huge wins over Duke, Miami, and Florida State. But BC is more likely than not to go to the NIT, non-conference SOS being just one of the reasons. It's hard to feel sympathy for a Power 5 program that schedules Maine, Sacred Heart, South Carolina State and Columbia in the same season. This alone will tank your strength of schedule. Additionally, they didn't come up with any good wins in three non-conference games where they challenged themselves. Finally, they are 2-7 on the road, with neither win coming against a team with a winning record. But I won't put the final nail in their coffin just yet. If they can address their road issues by winning two of their final three road contests against NC State, FSU, or Miami, I'll revisit their tournament worthiness. 

​Odds of making the field: 20%

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Oregon

Non-conference SOS: 217
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 6
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 2

There's one major reason why Oregon is working against the grain this season. It's not that they opened with Coppin State, Prairie View A&M, and Alabama State. It's not they played in the America's most highly regarded early season tournament (The PK 80) and came out with no good wins. It's not even that they played one non-league game on the road against a very meh Fresno State program. It's that they accomplished absolutely nothing in non-league play. They lost to Oklahoma in Portland and at home against Boise State, but even worse, they couldn't even beat a struggling UConn program on a neutral court. There's too much to dislike here, despite strong Pac 12 wins against UCLA, Washington, and at Arizona State. They finish with four of their last six games on the road. If they win two or three of those, then we'll give them a fresh look. 

Odds of making the field: 35%

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Georgetown

Non-conference SOS: 348
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 1
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 8
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 5

Including Georgetown is less about evaluating their NCAA tournament hopes and more of a case study on how not to schedule in the non-conference if you want to be selected for the NCAA Tournament. Patrick Ewing and his staff decided early on last year that gaining confidence was a bigger priority than building a tournament worthy profile in 2018. With that in mind, they scheduled buy games against half the MEAC, and beat up on those poor schools accordingly. But that's not the worst part. They were scheduled to play in the PK80, a three game, neutral site event with the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, and other elite programs. And at the last minute, they backed out of the field.

Yep, you read that right. 

Sad, right? Even if they played in the PK80 and lost all three games, their non-conference SOS would have been at least 100 spots higher. But the new staff at Georgetown was certain that this team was not ready to compete for a bid in the dance. Well, it's February 14th, the Hoyas are 15-10 with no bad losses, and they recently picked up Big East wins against NCAA locks Seton Hall and Butler. They've clearly turned a corner and are playing like an NCAA squad. What's worse is that they close the season with three home games against Xavier, Providence, and Marquette. If they end up winning all three, they'll possibly end up with five Tier 1 RPI victories before the conference tournament. But even if that happens, it won't be enough. There are only three schools in the nation with a worse non-conference slate than Georgetown. Regardless of what happens to close the season, giving a bid to a bubble team that scheduled so poorly can't be justified. 

Odds of making the field: 10% (must win Big East Tournament)

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Virginia Tech

Non-conference SOS: 325
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 1
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 7
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 3

Ah, the Hokies. The folks at Bracket Forecast haven't had the kindest of words for Virginia Tech over the years, mainly because they continue to schedule poorly and continue to play with fire for that reason. I can think of at least three seasons off the top of my head where they have been left out of the field for a bad non-conference SOS, and yet the AD and/or coaching staff fails to adapt. Their 2018 non-conference slate is in the bottom ten percent of all programs in Division 1.

While the criticism is absolutely warranted, there's an Ace up Buzz Williams' sleeve that everyone in college basketball knows about. They have a road win against the team with the best resume in college basketball (by a mile) - Virginia. And that's not all. They also have an additional win at home against top 4 seed UNC, a strong road win against fellow NCAA bubble team NC State, and a neutral court victory over No. 45 Washington. Add that on top of a 7-5 road record (something that most bubble teams can't claim), and I think you have enough to push the Hokies over the edge and into the field of 68. But that spot in the field is tenuous, and if they don't finish strong, other programs could easily leapfrog them by March 11th. 

​Odds of making the field: 55%

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