Poor Non-League Schedules = NIT? - Part I

In the past, the NCAA Division I men's basketball selection committee has been nearly fanatical in stressing the importance of non-conference strength of schedule. Teams on the bubble who scheduled poorly outside of league play have been punished by being sent to the NIT. Take 2011 for instance. Colorado boasted five top 50 wins, including four wins against teams seeded 5 or higher in the NCAA tournament. Virginia Tech accumulated four wins against teams in the NCAA field, including a signature win against 2 seed Duke. Yet both teams were excluded from the dance, almost certainly due to their pathetic non-conference schedules. Both slates were ranked 300+ - impressive, considering there are only 351 teams in Division I.

From 2013 to 2017, of the last four teams selected for the at-large field, none had a non-conference league schedule ranked below 178. But in 2017, the selection committee made a slight yet significant deviation, The last team selected for an at-large, Kansas State, had a non-conference SOS of 220, countered with three RPI top 10 wins. This was the first time in recent memory that a poor non-league slate was overlooked in favor of quality wins. Think this is just an obscure blip on the radar? 

Think again. 

Division I head coaches and their staffs noticed. Seeing Kansas State's 2017 entry into the field as permission to schedule non-league games without consequence, we now have a 2018 bubble rife with awful early season schedules. What's normally a bubble sprinkled with a few bad non-league slates is infested with programs who showed little to no interest in scheduling good teams in November and December. As of February 14th, we have NINE teams on the bubble with non-conference schedules ranked 200+. For part one of this story, we'll examine the first five offenders and evaluate their chances to make the NCAA tournament. We'll follow up with an additional blog piece on Wednesday evening and look at five other squads with similar issues.

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Kansas State

Non-conference SOS: 330
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 1
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 7
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 3

Despite the fact that Bruce Weber and Company barely squeezed their way into the at-large field in 2017, they decided to play an even more pathetic slate outside Big 12 play. If scheduling the likes of American, USC Upstate, and Northern Arizona wasn't enough, they also failed to put any teams on the docket who were projected to be really good this season. Sure, they played Arizona State in the Las Vegas Invitational, but no one outside of Tempe thought the Sun Devils would be a top 50 RPI team when the season began. Their only top 100 RPI non-league win was at home against Georgia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge in January. 

Fortunately for the 'Cats, their league wins are pretty impressive - they have five Tier 1 victories, two of which were on the road. But their only two wins against teams clearly in the field (TCU, Oklahoma) were at home. If they want to feel safe on March 11th, they'll need to propel themselves ahead of the other teams on the bubble. That would probably require finishing 4-2 down the stretch and snagging a road victory against top 30 RPI Oklahoma or TCU - teams they already beat once. 

​Odds of making the field: 40%
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Oklahoma State 

Non-conference SOS: 275
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 4
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 1
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 5
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 4

The Pokes non-conference slate was a mix of decent games sprinkled in among mostly God awful barely D1 programs. Consider that they played Texas A&M, Florida State, and Arkansas all away from home and had Wichita State come to Stillwater. Not bad! Then consider that they played Pepperdine, Charlotte, Houston Baptist, and Mississippi Valley State, who have so far combined to go 11-84 this season. Oof.

If I'm the selection committee, I give the Cowboys a pass this season. Mike Boynton took over the program last spring after Brad Underwood unexpectedly left for Illinois in the dead of night. If you've ever heard D1 coaches talk scheduling, you know it's no easy task. It takes time to build relationships with other coaches and master the science of RPI prediction a year (or even two) in advance. Given that this is Boynton's first time as a head coach, OSU can be forgiven for having to quickly fill out their remaining schedule with wretched buy games. The Cowboys scheduled a handful of tough games, and even beat Florida State (currently projected as a 9 seed) on a neutral floor. Couple that with signature road wins at West Virginia and Kansas, and that's enough to squeeze them into the field (for now). 

Odds of making the field: 55%

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Mississippi State 

Non-conference SOS: 304
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 1
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 8
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 3

There's not much to like here, so we'll keep it brief. The Bulldogs played one tough non-conference game at Cincinnati, and did not play one other top 100 RPI team in the non-conference. They played Dayton, who is usually in the top 50 and ended up being not so good this year, but that doesn't excuse playing 11 other games of zero consequence. What's more, they have just one good win in SEC play - home against Alabama - and are 1-6 on the road. Barring a wins at Texas A&M and Tennessee and a deep run in Nashville next month, Mississippi State will end up in the NIT.

​Odds of making the field: 20%

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Nebraska

Non-conference SOS: 264
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 3
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 5
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 4

Nebraska's non-conference resume is a little bit like Oklahoma State's: a few decent games, a few strong games, and a handful of garbage buy games. They played at Michigan State, at Creighton, and lost a squeaker at home against Kansas; give Tim Miles credit for those three. Additionally, they went to play in a strong neutral court tournament - the Advocare Invitational in Florida - but lost in the first game to UCF. This meant that instead of two additional games against the likes of West Virginia and Missouri, they played Marist and Long Beach State. Unfortunately, they had nothing to show from their non-conference schedule and, despite a good overall record, not much to show this season as a whole. They are 0-6 in Tier 1 RPI games, with no quality contests remaining on the schedule. The only notable feather in their cap is a single solitary win at home against Michigan. That won't be enough. In order to go dancing, they'll need to beat at least one of the big three in New York in early March - Ohio State, Michigan State, or Purdue.

Odds of making the field: 30%

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Utah

Non-conference SOS: 213
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 1
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 4
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 2

While the Utes overall non-conference schedule is rough - it's not nearly as bad as most of the others on this list. Their are two games dragging their non-conference SOS: two games against Mississippi Valley State and Northwestern State, who are a combined 3-43. Otherwise, their non-league slate isn't half bad, having played at Butler, BYU, and defeating Missouri at home. Speaking of which, that win keeps looking better and better, as the Tigers are now 22 overall in the RPI. 

While Larry Krystkowiak's group is just 3-6 on the road, they have four wins against teams in the field or just outside. That includes a really nice win at Arizona State. They also close the season with two games at home against projected NCAA teams UCLA and USC, which would further boost their resume if they were to win. I have to say, I don't currently have Utah in my projected field, but after re-examining their resume, there's a lot to reconsider. 

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