Thursday night commenced the Madness before March even started. What wasn't surprising was that good teams lost. What was suprising was who those teams lost to. St. Louis, with their two month winning streak in tow, was stunned by lowly Duquense. Kentucky lost to Arkansas (leading to a season sweep). Ohio St. lost a head scratcher in Happy Valley. Memphis lost to a Houston team that has been decimated with injuries and transfers. None of these teams are on the bubble (at least not yet). They're all going to make the tournament. However, (St. Louis aside) those losses only reinforced the fact that despite carrying cache and marketable brands, their profiles aren't that good and neither will their seed be on Selection Sunday unless they rack up significant wins in the next two weeks. Let's take a look at the profiles of some of the teams close to the 6/7 seed line and look at who could leapfrog them.
Teams that look to be leapfrogged:
Kentucky (7 seed):
RPI
1-50: 2-4
51-100: 11-3
101-200: 3-0
201+: 5-0
Away: 5 -3
Neutral: 1-2
Notes: Very strong OOC schedule but only 1 OOC quality win (Louisville-H), only other quality win is at Mizzou (11 seed), only quality win away from home is at Mizzou as well.
RPI
1-50: 2-4
51-100: 11-3
101-200: 3-0
201+: 5-0
Away: 5 -3
Neutral: 1-2
Notes: Very strong OOC schedule but only 1 OOC quality win (Louisville-H), only other quality win is at Mizzou (11 seed), only quality win away from home is at Mizzou as well.
Ohio St (6 seed):
RPI
1-50: 4-4
51-100: 7-1
101-200: 8-2
201+: 3-0
Away: 5-4
Neutral: 1-0
Notes: 0 quality OOC wins, one quality win away from home (Wisconsin), nearly 2/3rds of all games played at home and played 11 home games, one road, and one neutral game in OOC (the selection committee will notice this).
RPI
1-50: 4-4
51-100: 7-1
101-200: 8-2
201+: 3-0
Away: 5-4
Neutral: 1-0
Notes: 0 quality OOC wins, one quality win away from home (Wisconsin), nearly 2/3rds of all games played at home and played 11 home games, one road, and one neutral game in OOC (the selection committee will notice this).
Iowa (7 seed):
RPI
1-50: 4-8
51-100: 2- 1
101-200: 7-0
201+: 5-0
Away: 4 - 5
Neutral: 3-1
Notes: 1 OOC quality win (Xavier), one quality win away from home (Ohio St), lost three straight (Wisconsin, @Minnesota, @Indiana).
RPI
1-50: 4-8
51-100: 2- 1
101-200: 7-0
201+: 5-0
Away: 4 - 5
Neutral: 3-1
Notes: 1 OOC quality win (Xavier), one quality win away from home (Ohio St), lost three straight (Wisconsin, @Minnesota, @Indiana).
UConn (7 seed):
RPI
1-50: 4-5
51-100 4-0
101-200: 7-1
201+: 7-0
Away: 6-3
Neutral: 3-0
Notes: Signature OOC win vs Florida, only other quality wins vs Memphis (twice).
RPI
1-50: 4-5
51-100 4-0
101-200: 7-1
201+: 7-0
Away: 6-3
Neutral: 3-0
Notes: Signature OOC win vs Florida, only other quality wins vs Memphis (twice).
Teams that look to do the leapfrogging:
Stanford (7 seed):
RPI
1-50: 5-7
51-100: 1-2
101-200: 9-0
201+: 3-0
Away: 6-4
Neutral 1 - 2
Notes: Signature OOC win at UConn, wins vs UCLA, at Cal, Arizona St, @Oregon, overall strong resume and will probably stay at least on the 7 line or move up if they hold strong until Selection Sunday.
RPI
1-50: 5-7
51-100: 1-2
101-200: 9-0
201+: 3-0
Away: 6-4
Neutral 1 - 2
Notes: Signature OOC win at UConn, wins vs UCLA, at Cal, Arizona St, @Oregon, overall strong resume and will probably stay at least on the 7 line or move up if they hold strong until Selection Sunday.
VCU (8 seed):
RPI
1-50: 2-4
51-100: 4-2
101-200: 11-1
201+: 4-0
Away: 5-5
Neutral 3 - 2
Notes: Signature OOC win at Virginia. Four of six quality wins have come away from home. All losses to quality opponents but one were one possession games under a minute to play. Will play St. Louis at home on Saturday.
RPI
1-50: 2-4
51-100: 4-2
101-200: 11-1
201+: 4-0
Away: 5-5
Neutral 3 - 2
Notes: Signature OOC win at Virginia. Four of six quality wins have come away from home. All losses to quality opponents but one were one possession games under a minute to play. Will play St. Louis at home on Saturday.
Kansas St (8 seed):
RPI
1-50 6-5
51-100 2-2
101-200 6-2
201+ 5-0
Away 2-6
Neutral 3-2
Notes: Two bad OOC losses to No. Colorado/Charlotte, two good OOC wins vs GW/Gonzaga, 0 top 100 road wins. Defeated Kansas, Texas, and Oklahama (all top 5 seeds). All three remaining games are vs top 50 opponents.(Iowa St. @Oklahoma St, Baylor).
RPI
1-50 6-5
51-100 2-2
101-200 6-2
201+ 5-0
Away 2-6
Neutral 3-2
Notes: Two bad OOC losses to No. Colorado/Charlotte, two good OOC wins vs GW/Gonzaga, 0 top 100 road wins. Defeated Kansas, Texas, and Oklahama (all top 5 seeds). All three remaining games are vs top 50 opponents.(Iowa St. @Oklahoma St, Baylor).
George Washington (8 seed):
RPI
1-50: 2-4
51-100: 7-3
101-200: 4-0
201+: 7-0
Away 5-5
Neutral: 3-1
Notes: Signature OOC win vs Creighton (neutral). No bad losses. Defeated five top 100 opponents in OOC schedule.
RPI
1-50: 2-4
51-100: 7-3
101-200: 4-0
201+: 7-0
Away 5-5
Neutral: 3-1
Notes: Signature OOC win vs Creighton (neutral). No bad losses. Defeated five top 100 opponents in OOC schedule.
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