Discussing the resumes of East Tennessee State, UNC Greensboro, Northern Iowa, and Wichita State.

Part I - Discussing NC State and Richmond

Why does Penn State's exclusion from the bracket preview spell bad news for some teams on the bubble? Today I'll go in depth to discuss why this matters for teams like Notre Dame, Oregon State, SMU, etc.

After being one of three bracketology sites to go 68 for 68 last season, we're proud to announce that we've been invited to host a bracketology focused Reddit AMA in the coming weeks. The AMA will take place at r/collegebasketball. The focus of the AMA will be more about the bracketology process than the upcoming forecast for the 2020 season.

 More details to follow soon!

In advance of the NCAA Selection Show where the committee previews the top 4 seeds, listed below is my prediction. There's not much time before the reveal at 12:30 EST, so I'll come back this weekend with an update on what I got wrong, what I got right, and where I think the committee erred. In the mean time, enjoy the madness! 37 days until Selection Sunday!

1
Tennessee
Duke
Virginia
Gonzaga

2
Kentucky
Michigan
North Carolina
Michigan State

3
Marquette
Houston
Kansas
Iowa St.

4
Purdue 
Louisville
Wisconsin
Nevada

In what seemed like an innocuous press release, last week the NCAA announced that Atlantic 10 commissioner Bernadette McGlade and Bradley Athletic Director Chris Reynolds would begin five-year terms on the Division 1 men's basketball selection committee starting with the 2018-2019 season. At the time, it didn't raise many eyebrows. Each member of the ten-person selection committee serves a five-year appointment, and this year was the final season for Southland Conference Commissioner Tom Burnett and Creighton Athletic Director Bruce Rasmussen. McGlade and Reynolds will replace them starting next season.

The buried lede in this release is huge news if you think mid-majors deserve more representation in the NCAA Tournament. What this means is that the majority of the ten-person committee will be represented by mid-major or low-major conferences for the first time since 2013. Why? Because of the two departing members, one is from the power conferences (Rasmussen - Creighton) and one is from a low-major (Reynolds - Southland).  McGlade and Reynolds, the two incoming members, are both from mid- or low-major conferences. This shifts the power to 6-4 in favor of the smaller conferences. Listed below are the members of the 2019 selection committee:

Power conference members:
Bernard Muir (Chair) - Stanford
Mich Barnhart - Kentucky
Kevin White - Duke
Jim Phillips - Northwestern

Mid or low-major conference members:
Mountain West Commissioner (yet to be named)
Jim Schaus - Ohio University
Tom Holmue - BYU
Janet Cone - UNC-Asheville
Bernadette McGlade - Atlantic 10
Chris Reynolds - Bradley

So what happened in 2014 to shift the balance of power to the power conferences? Bruce Rasmussen, the AD at Creighton, began his five-year term on the selection committee. At the time of his appointment, Creighton was still a member of the Missouri Valley conference - a mid-major. This kept majority representation with the mid-low major schools (four from power conferences, six from non-power conferences). But in Spring 2013, Creighton joined the Big East, changing the makeup of the committee members to five and five. The equal representation from the elite conferences made a MASSIVE difference in selection and seeding from 2013 to 2014. Take a look at the last four at-large teams selected in those two years:

2013
Boise State (Mountain West)
La Salle (Atlantic 10)
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA)
Saint Mary's (West Coast Conference)

2014
Xavier (Big East)
NC State (ACC)
Tennessee (SEC)
Iowa (Big Ten)

Pretty drastic, right? In the year where the power on the committee shifted toward the power schools, the last four at-large bids went from four mid-majors to four power schools. This doesn't even begin to scratch the surface; mid-majors like St. Bonaventure in 2016 and Middle Tennessee in 2018 were left out even though they had strong resumes. Meanwhile, Syracuse made the field in both 2016 and 2018 despite having a losing record in top 50 and 100 games.

While committee members are supposed to be objective, it was clear that the five members from power conferences were voting as a bloc over the last five seasons. Some would argue that the power conferences should comprise at least half of the selection committee because they have most of the talent and wins. But remember, the Power 6 schools represent just 77 of 351 member institutions, about 22 percent of the schools in Division I. It only makes sense that the power conferences be limited to 40 percent of the body that determines all of the at-large bids, seeding, and destinations for each institution. 

It's 10 minutes to 6pm and the Selection Show is about to start. Unfortunately, there's no time to do a bracket before the clock strikes zero. That being said, here's your 2018 projections and seed list. At the bottom are the first ten teams out. Enjoy!
1
Virginia (ACC)
Villanova
Kansas
Xavier
2
North Carolina
Duke 
Purdue
Cincinnati 
3
Michigan
Tennessee 
Michigan St.
West Virginia
4
Texas Tech
Auburn
Wichita State
Arizona
5
Gonzaga
Kentucky
Houston
Ohio State
6
Clemson
Miami
Florida
Texas A&M
7
Arkansas
Missouri
Nevada
Virginia Tech
8
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
TCU
Providence
9
Florida St.
NC State
Alabama
Texas
10
St. Bonaventure
Creighton
Butler
Arizona State
11
USC/UCLA
St. Mary's/Oklahoma
Loyola-Chicago
San Diego St.
12
Davidson
New Mexico St.
South Dakota St.
Murray St.
13
Marshall
Buffalo 
Charleston
UNC-Greensboro
14
Bucknell
Montana
Wright State
SF Austin
15
Penn
Lipscomb
Georgia State
UMBC
16
Cal St. Fullerton
NC Central
LIU Brooklyn/Radford
Texas Southern/Iona

​First Out:
Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma St.
Kansas State
Syracuse
LSU
Louisville
Washington
Utah
Baylor
Penn St.

The clock has struck midnight! Welcome to March, everyone! Over the next 20 days or so the action will be almost non-stop, and Bracket Forecast has you covered. To celebrate March Madness, we've got a fresh bracket up for your viewing pleasure. We'll have new posts coming just about every day until Selection Sunday, March 11th. In the mean time, Let's quickly go over a few headlines about the bracket as it stands today.

•  Virginia all but has the #1 overall seed locked up. If they win either of their final two regular season games this week, it's a done deal. They'll be playing in the South Region on Thursday and Saturday, March 15th and 17th. If they win in the first two rounds, they'll then advance to Atlanta for the regional semis.

• Speaking of the ACC, UNC fans need not worry about the loss to Miami. Their ten Tier 1 wins, a very high SOS, and a lack of bad losses means they're still firmly on the two line with a chance to get a 1 seed, should they win a couple of more quality games. Barring a collapse, they're also headed to Charlotte. Which region they play in is still far from decided.

​

• Does Middle Tennessee deserve an at-large bid if they don't win the C-USA tournament? Their lack of wins against the field says no, but their non-conference SOS and record in Tier 1 and 2 game says yes. Their only loss outside Tier 1 and 2 is against Belmont, who is 23-8 and has an RPI of 76. That's hardly a bad loss. They lost neutral court games against Auburn, USC, and Miami by an average of five points. Pay close attention to the Blue Raiders. If they need an at-large bid to make the tournament, that could steal a spot away from someone on the edge of the bubble.

• The Pac 12 is a mess. Arizona and Arizona State are firmly in the field, but otherwise there are no guarantees. As of today, Washington and UCLA are in my last four teams in and Utah, USC, Oregon, and Utah are sitting just outside the field. As we get closer to Selection Sunday, keep a close eye on which teams on the bubble weed themselves out with bad losses or play themselves in with quality wins. The conference tournament in Las Vegas next week will have a lot on the line. 

​

• The more time that passes without St. Bonaventure suffering a bad loss, the more confident I am that they'll make the field. After squeaking out a thrilling 3OT victory against Davidson Tuesday, they close out the regular season at St. Louis. If they can win that game and advance to the semis of the A10 tournament next week, they'll get pretty close to lock status. 

In our first installment of this topic, we discussed how Kansas State's entry into the NCAA field last season opened the flood gates for other schools to schedule poor non-conference slates. 

If you haven't read read the prologue, you can check it out here.

We discussed five schools who have taken this route, and tried to pinpoint exactly how much this will hurt their case for an at-large bid in 2018. Those schools were Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Mississippi State, and Utah. Tonight we'll look at five more programs who are dancing with fire this year (pun intended).
​

Non-conference SOS: 262
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 2
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 7
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 2

Kalvin Sampson is finally delivering in Houston after bringing huge expectations with him. The Cougars are 19-5 so far this year, with excellent wins in and outside of league play. Their record in Tier 1 RPI games is 3-2, which resembles a team fighting for a single digit seed instead of being on the bubble. So what's the issue? Sampson and Co. played seven games against teams rated 200 or lower in the RPI, which is easily enough to tank any team's non-conference SOS.  To pile on even more, they lost a first round Paradise Jam tilt with Drexel (RPI 219).

But fear not, Coug fans. Houston did challenge themselves to a degree in non-league play and got results. They defeated Providence on a "neutral court" in Connecticut and drilled Arkansas at home. Both are projected to easily make the field this year. They also played a tough road game at LSU and barely lost. Combined with their win against Wichita State, they should be in the field this year. Of course, this assumes they won't have an epic late-season collapse.

Odds of making the field: 70%

Non-conference SOS: 289
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2 (or 3 if you include No. 53 Nebraska)
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 6
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 4

After what seems like a decade of irrelevance, things are looking up in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles are 16-10 so far this season, with huge wins over Duke, Miami, and Florida State. But BC is more likely than not to go to the NIT, non-conference SOS being just one of the reasons. It's hard to feel sympathy for a Power 5 program that schedules Maine, Sacred Heart, South Carolina State and Columbia in the same season. This alone will tank your strength of schedule. Additionally, they didn't come up with any good wins in three non-conference games where they challenged themselves. Finally, they are 2-7 on the road, with neither win coming against a team with a winning record. But I won't put the final nail in their coffin just yet. If they can address their road issues by winning two of their final three road contests against NC State, FSU, or Miami, I'll revisit their tournament worthiness. 

​Odds of making the field: 20%

Non-conference SOS: 217
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 6
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 2

There's one major reason why Oregon is working against the grain this season. It's not that they opened with Coppin State, Prairie View A&M, and Alabama State. It's not they played in the America's most highly regarded early season tournament (The PK 80) and came out with no good wins. It's not even that they played one non-league game on the road against a very meh Fresno State program. It's that they accomplished absolutely nothing in non-league play. They lost to Oklahoma in Portland and at home against Boise State, but even worse, they couldn't even beat a struggling UConn program on a neutral court. There's too much to dislike here, despite strong Pac 12 wins against UCLA, Washington, and at Arizona State. They finish with four of their last six games on the road. If they win two or three of those, then we'll give them a fresh look. 

Odds of making the field: 35%

Non-conference SOS: 348
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 1
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 8
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 5

Including Georgetown is less about evaluating their NCAA tournament hopes and more of a case study on how not to schedule in the non-conference if you want to be selected for the NCAA Tournament. Patrick Ewing and his staff decided early on last year that gaining confidence was a bigger priority than building a tournament worthy profile in 2018. With that in mind, they scheduled buy games against half the MEAC, and beat up on those poor schools accordingly. But that's not the worst part. They were scheduled to play in the PK80, a three game, neutral site event with the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, and other elite programs. And at the last minute, they backed out of the field.

Yep, you read that right. 

Sad, right? Even if they played in the PK80 and lost all three games, their non-conference SOS would have been at least 100 spots higher. But the new staff at Georgetown was certain that this team was not ready to compete for a bid in the dance. Well, it's February 14th, the Hoyas are 15-10 with no bad losses, and they recently picked up Big East wins against NCAA locks Seton Hall and Butler. They've clearly turned a corner and are playing like an NCAA squad. What's worse is that they close the season with three home games against Xavier, Providence, and Marquette. If they end up winning all three, they'll possibly end up with five Tier 1 RPI victories before the conference tournament. But even if that happens, it won't be enough. There are only three schools in the nation with a worse non-conference slate than Georgetown. Regardless of what happens to close the season, giving a bid to a bubble team that scheduled so poorly can't be justified. 

Odds of making the field: 10% (must win Big East Tournament)

Non-conference SOS: 325
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 1
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 7
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 3

Ah, the Hokies. The folks at Bracket Forecast haven't had the kindest of words for Virginia Tech over the years, mainly because they continue to schedule poorly and continue to play with fire for that reason. I can think of at least three seasons off the top of my head where they have been left out of the field for a bad non-conference SOS, and yet the AD and/or coaching staff fails to adapt. Their 2018 non-conference slate is in the bottom ten percent of all programs in Division 1.

While the criticism is absolutely warranted, there's an Ace up Buzz Williams' sleeve that everyone in college basketball knows about. They have a road win against the team with the best resume in college basketball (by a mile) - Virginia. And that's not all. They also have an additional win at home against top 4 seed UNC, a strong road win against fellow NCAA bubble team NC State, and a neutral court victory over No. 45 Washington. Add that on top of a 7-5 road record (something that most bubble teams can't claim), and I think you have enough to push the Hokies over the edge and into the field of 68. But that spot in the field is tenuous, and if they don't finish strong, other programs could easily leapfrog them by March 11th. 

​Odds of making the field: 55%

In the past, the NCAA Division I men's basketball selection committee has been nearly fanatical in stressing the importance of non-conference strength of schedule. Teams on the bubble who scheduled poorly outside of league play have been punished by being sent to the NIT. Take 2011 for instance. Colorado boasted five top 50 wins, including four wins against teams seeded 5 or higher in the NCAA tournament. Virginia Tech accumulated four wins against teams in the NCAA field, including a signature win against 2 seed Duke. Yet both teams were excluded from the dance, almost certainly due to their pathetic non-conference schedules. Both slates were ranked 300+ - impressive, considering there are only 351 teams in Division I.

From 2013 to 2017, of the last four teams selected for the at-large field, none had a non-conference league schedule ranked below 178. But in 2017, the selection committee made a slight yet significant deviation, The last team selected for an at-large, Kansas State, had a non-conference SOS of 220, countered with three RPI top 10 wins. This was the first time in recent memory that a poor non-league slate was overlooked in favor of quality wins. Think this is just an obscure blip on the radar? 

Think again. 

Division I head coaches and their staffs noticed. Seeing Kansas State's 2017 entry into the field as permission to schedule non-league games without consequence, we now have a 2018 bubble rife with awful early season schedules. What's normally a bubble sprinkled with a few bad non-league slates is infested with programs who showed little to no interest in scheduling good teams in November and December. As of February 14th, we have NINE teams on the bubble with non-conference schedules ranked 200+. For part one of this story, we'll examine the first five offenders and evaluate their chances to make the NCAA tournament. We'll follow up with an additional blog piece on Wednesday evening and look at five other squads with similar issues.

Non-conference SOS: 330
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 1
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 7
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 3

Despite the fact that Bruce Weber and Company barely squeezed their way into the at-large field in 2017, they decided to play an even more pathetic slate outside Big 12 play. If scheduling the likes of American, USC Upstate, and Northern Arizona wasn't enough, they also failed to put any teams on the docket who were projected to be really good this season. Sure, they played Arizona State in the Las Vegas Invitational, but no one outside of Tempe thought the Sun Devils would be a top 50 RPI team when the season began. Their only top 100 RPI non-league win was at home against Georgia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge in January. 

Fortunately for the 'Cats, their league wins are pretty impressive - they have five Tier 1 victories, two of which were on the road. But their only two wins against teams clearly in the field (TCU, Oklahoma) were at home. If they want to feel safe on March 11th, they'll need to propel themselves ahead of the other teams on the bubble. That would probably require finishing 4-2 down the stretch and snagging a road victory against top 30 RPI Oklahoma or TCU - teams they already beat once. 

​Odds of making the field: 40%
​

Non-conference SOS: 275
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 4
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 1
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 5
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 4

The Pokes non-conference slate was a mix of decent games sprinkled in among mostly God awful barely D1 programs. Consider that they played Texas A&M, Florida State, and Arkansas all away from home and had Wichita State come to Stillwater. Not bad! Then consider that they played Pepperdine, Charlotte, Houston Baptist, and Mississippi Valley State, who have so far combined to go 11-84 this season. Oof.

If I'm the selection committee, I give the Cowboys a pass this season. Mike Boynton took over the program last spring after Brad Underwood unexpectedly left for Illinois in the dead of night. If you've ever heard D1 coaches talk scheduling, you know it's no easy task. It takes time to build relationships with other coaches and master the science of RPI prediction a year (or even two) in advance. Given that this is Boynton's first time as a head coach, OSU can be forgiven for having to quickly fill out their remaining schedule with wretched buy games. The Cowboys scheduled a handful of tough games, and even beat Florida State (currently projected as a 9 seed) on a neutral floor. Couple that with signature road wins at West Virginia and Kansas, and that's enough to squeeze them into the field (for now). 

Odds of making the field: 55%

Non-conference SOS: 304
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 1
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 8
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 3

There's not much to like here, so we'll keep it brief. The Bulldogs played one tough non-conference game at Cincinnati, and did not play one other top 100 RPI team in the non-conference. They played Dayton, who is usually in the top 50 and ended up being not so good this year, but that doesn't excuse playing 11 other games of zero consequence. What's more, they have just one good win in SEC play - home against Alabama - and are 1-6 on the road. Barring a wins at Texas A&M and Tennessee and a deep run in Nashville next month, Mississippi State will end up in the NIT.

​Odds of making the field: 20%

Non-conference SOS: 264
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 3
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 0
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 5
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 4

Nebraska's non-conference resume is a little bit like Oklahoma State's: a few decent games, a few strong games, and a handful of garbage buy games. They played at Michigan State, at Creighton, and lost a squeaker at home against Kansas; give Tim Miles credit for those three. Additionally, they went to play in a strong neutral court tournament - the Advocare Invitational in Florida - but lost in the first game to UCF. This meant that instead of two additional games against the likes of West Virginia and Missouri, they played Marist and Long Beach State. Unfortunately, they had nothing to show from their non-conference schedule and, despite a good overall record, not much to show this season as a whole. They are 0-6 in Tier 1 RPI games, with no quality contests remaining on the schedule. The only notable feather in their cap is a single solitary win at home against Michigan. That won't be enough. In order to go dancing, they'll need to beat at least one of the big three in New York in early March - Ohio State, Michigan State, or Purdue.

Odds of making the field: 30%

Non-conference SOS: 213
Top 50 RPI non-conference games: 2
Top 50 RPI non-conference wins: 1
Non-conference games vs 200+ RPI teams: 4
Non-conference games vs 300+ RPI teams: 2

While the Utes overall non-conference schedule is rough - it's not nearly as bad as most of the others on this list. Their are two games dragging their non-conference SOS: two games against Mississippi Valley State and Northwestern State, who are a combined 3-43. Otherwise, their non-league slate isn't half bad, having played at Butler, BYU, and defeating Missouri at home. Speaking of which, that win keeps looking better and better, as the Tigers are now 22 overall in the RPI. 

While Larry Krystkowiak's group is just 3-6 on the road, they have four wins against teams in the field or just outside. That includes a really nice win at Arizona State. They also close the season with two games at home against projected NCAA teams UCLA and USC, which would further boost their resume if they were to win. I have to say, I don't currently have Utah in my projected field, but after re-examining their resume, there's a lot to reconsider.